Auto workers are on strike. What now?

(TND) — Auto workers have gone on strike, armed with picket signs and an ambitious list of demands.

This is the first time in United Auto Workers history that a simultaneous strike was held against all three of Detroit's big domestic automakers, General Motors, Ford and Stellantis (the maker of Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep vehicles).

But it’s a limited, targeted strike. Only about 13,000 workers at three plants walked off the job at midnight.

The striking workers are at factories in Wentzville, Missouri; Wayne, Michigan; and Toledo, Ohio.

The rest of the UAW’s 146,000 members are continuing to work at the company’s plants.

UAW President Shawn Fain said Thursday night during a social media livestream that this tactic will “keep the companies guessing.”

“It will give our national negotiators maximum leverage and flexibility in bargaining,” he said.

Fain warned that more workers could strike if negotiations falter.

“If we need to go all out, we will,” he said. “Everything is on the table.”

There’s speculation that this limited action is a way to preserve the union’s $825 million strike fund. The UAW pays striking workers $500 a week, and eventually those resources could run out in an extensive, prolonged stoppage.

But labor scholar Marick Masters thinks this so-called “stand-up strike” is more of a negotiating tactic.

“This is a way of not painting the companies in a corner and forcing them to be particularly harsh in their response,” said Masters, of Wayne State University in Detroit.

“One of the things that the (union) leadership is very concerned about is saving face and getting them an agreement that's not going to embarrass them with the membership,” Masters said. “They recognize that they've raised expectations. They've in effect indicated that they're going to deliver a lot more than has been delivered in the past. And they've got to hold out for a deal that's better than anything that's been forthcoming at this point in time.”

Negotiations are separate but concurrent with the automakers.

And they are happening at a very sensitive time in the business.

The companies are in the midst of a seismic shift away from building gas-powered cars in favor of electric vehicles.

They’re spending billions to make the cars, the batteries and to build out a charging network to help grease the wheels of EV adoption.

Automakers are still reliant on selling gas-powered cars to fuel their transition to EVs, and anything that causes a disruption is dangerous to that progress, Masters said.

A labor strike is certainly a disruption.

The union wants big wage increases, the elimination of compensation tiers, restored cost-of-living adjustments, the return of defined benefit pensions, retiree medical benefits, increases to retiree pay, the right to strike over plant closures, and more paid time off.

Fain said they’re seeking “economic and social justice for our members.”

“The money is there, the cause is righteous, the world is watching, and the UAW is ready to stand up,” he said.

The automakers have reportedly offered pay increases in the range of 17.5% to 20%.

Masters expects the union won’t accept anything under 25%.

“And it's just a question of how much north of that it is, but I would say it's going to have to be above 30%,” he said.

Masters said the companies will stay in the same ballpark with their offers. And it is incumbent on the union to ensure they deliver equal results for their members.

It’s unclear who will blink first.

Masters said Ford would like to come to terms first. Ford, he said, prides itself on a good relationship with its workers. And it doesn’t want this strike to deal lasting damage.

“Ford remains absolutely committed to reaching an agreement that rewards our employees and protects Ford’s ability to invest in the future as we move through industry-wide transformation,” reads part of a company statement from Thursday.

There are seemingly some lines in the sand that the automakers aren’t going to be willing to cross.

Masters said pay, concessions on temporary employees, lump sum payments and profit sharing are all in play.

But he said the companies aren’t going to want to give in on retiree health care, defined benefit pension plans, the COLAs, or blanket authority to unionize joint ventures that make EV parts.

“I think it's quite conceivable the workers could get a hefty wage increase that goes into their base and just very, very lucrative payouts,” he said.

Would that be enough to satisfy the union?

Possibly, Masters said.

And the sides could shake hands and call it a win-win if the strike only lasts a couple of weeks.

The damage should be manageable if the strike is over quickly, too.

But the dangers increase if the strike stretches on for several weeks or even a month or longer, Masters said.

That’s when we could see more of an impact on car prices and the wider economy, though he thinks the heaviest immediate impact will be more localized.

The automakers aren’t likely to jump immediately to the union’s demands, and they have enough inventory built up to handle a couple of weeks of partially idled operations.

But Masters said he expects another wave of UAW members will hit the picket lines before deals are ultimately reached.

Fain has been the UAW’s president for less than a year, and Masters said it’s unclear how united the members are for a prolonged strike.

Plus, he said, both sides will start feeling pressure from lawmakers and the White House if the strike lasts for three or four weeks.

“Everybody's got a lot of enthusiasm, a lot of energy at this moment, but you put people on the picket line for a few days, and you know the thrill wears off pretty quickly,” he said.